# Explainable Machine Learning for Pediatric Dental Risk Stratification Using Socio-Demographic Determinants

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.12405 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.12405/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [A Survey on Bias and Fairness in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09635/) (2019)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [What Clinicians Want: Contextualizing Explainable Machine Learning for Clinical End Use](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.05134/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Background: Pediatric dental disease remains one of the most prevalent and inequitable chronic health conditions worldwide. Although strong epidemiological evidence links oral health outcomes to socio-economic and demographic determinants, most artificial intelligence (AI) applications in dentistry rely on image-based diagnosis and black-box prediction models, limiting transparency and ethical applicability in pediatric populations. Objective: This study aimed to develop and evaluate an explainable machine learning framework for pediatric dental risk stratification that prioritizes interpretability, calibration, and ethical deployment over maximal predictive accuracy. Methods: A supervised machine learning model was trained using population-level pediatric data including age, income-to-poverty ratio, race/ethnicity, gender, and medical history. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and calibration curves. Explainability was achieved using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to provide global and individual-level interpretation of predictions. Results: The model achieved modest discrimination (AUC = 0.61) with conservative calibration, underestimating risk at higher probability levels. SHAP analysis identified age and income-to-poverty ratio as the strongest contributors to predicted risk, followed by race/ethnicity and gender. Conclusion: Explainable machine learning enables transparent, prevention-oriented pediatric dental risk stratification and supports population screening and equitable resource allocation rather than diagnostic decision-making.