# KTCF: Actionable Recourse in Knowledge Tracing via Counterfactual Explanations for Education

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09156 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.09156/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07269/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [Deep Knowledge Tracing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05908/) (2015)
- [Interpretable machine learning: definitions, methods, and applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04592/) (2019)
- [From Anecdotal Evidence to Quantitative Evaluation Methods: A Systematic Review on Evaluating Explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08164/) (2022)
- [Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06278/) (2020)
- [Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations Guided by Prototypes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02584/) (2019)
- [Context-Aware Attentive Knowledge Tracing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12324/) (2020)
- [What Do We Want From Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)? -- A Stakeholder Perspective on XAI and a Conceptual Model Guiding Interdisciplinary XAI Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.07817/) (2021)
- [Instance-based Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13211/) (2020)
- [pyKT: A Python Library to Benchmark Deep Learning based Knowledge Tracing Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.11460/) (2022)
- [Rethinking Attention-Model Explainability through Faithfulness Violation Test](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12114/) (2022)
- [Why Attentions May Not Be Interpretable?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05656/) (2020)
- [Improving Interpretability of Deep Sequential Knowledge Tracing Models with Question-centric Cognitive Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06885/) (2023)
- [Dear XAI Community, We Need to Talk! Fundamental Misconceptions in Current XAI Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04292/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual Explanations for Predictive Business Process Monitoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12018/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Instance-Centric Counterfactual Algorithms for XAI: From White Box to Black Box](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02399/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Explainable Knowledge Tracing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07279/) (2024)
- [Counterfactual Monotonic Knowledge Tracing for Assessing Students' Dynamic Mastery of Knowledge Concepts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03377/) (2023)
- [Interpretable Knowledge Tracing via Response Influence-based Counterfactual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10045/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Using Artificial Intelligence to improve teaching and learning benefits greater adaptivity and scalability in education. Knowledge Tracing (KT) is recognized for student modeling task due to its superior performance and application potential in education. To this end, we conceptualize and investigate counterfactual explanation as the connection from XAI for KT to education. Counterfactual explanations offer actionable recourse, are inherently causal and local, and easy for educational stakeholders to understand who are often non-experts. We propose KTCF, a counterfactual explanation generation method for KT that accounts for knowledge concept relationships, and a post-processing scheme that converts a counterfactual explanation into a sequence of educational instructions. We experiment on a large-scale educational dataset and show our KTCF method achieves superior and robust performance over existing methods, with improvements ranging from 5.7% to 34% across metrics. Additionally, we provide a qualitative evaluation of our post-processing scheme, demonstrating that the resulting educational instructions help in reducing large study burden. We show that counterfactuals have the potential to advance the responsible and practical use of AI in education. Future works on XAI for KT may benefit from educationally grounded conceptualization and developing stakeholder-centered methods.