# Nationality and Region Prediction from Names: A Comparative Study of Neural Models and Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08692 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.08692/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Unsupervised Cross-lingual Representation Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02116/) (2019)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [Multitask Prompted Training Enables Zero-Shot Task Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.08207/) (2021)
- [Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10625/) (2022)
- [CANINE: Pre-training an Efficient Tokenization-Free Encoder for Language Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.06874/) (2021)
- [GeoLLM: Extracting Geospatial Knowledge from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06213/) (2023)
- [Do Large Language Models Discriminate in Hiring Decisions on the Basis of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10486/) (2024)
- [Nationality Classification Using Name Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07903/) (2017)
- [Multi-Stage Evolutionary Model Merging with Meta Data Driven Curriculum Learning for Sentiment-Specialized Large Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06780/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Who Does This Name Remind You of ? Nationality Prediction via Large Language Model Associative Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.12771/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting nationality from personal names has practical value in marketing, demographic research, and genealogical studies. Conventional neural models learn statistical correspondences between names and nationalities from task-specific training data, posing challenges in generalizing to low-frequency nationalities and distinguishing similar nationalities within the same region. Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to address these challenges by leveraging world knowledge acquired during pre-training. In this study, we comprehensively compare neural models and LLMs on nationality prediction, evaluating six neural models and six LLM prompting strategies across three granularity levels (nationality, region, and continent), with frequency-based stratified analysis and error analysis. Results show that LLMs outperform neural models at all granularity levels, with the gap narrowing as granularity becomes coarser. Simple machine learning methods exhibit the highest frequency robustness, while pre-trained models and LLMs show degradation for low-frequency nationalities. Error analysis reveals that LLMs tend to make ``near-miss'' errors, predicting the correct region even when nationality is incorrect, whereas neural models exhibit more cross-regional errors and bias toward high-frequency classes. These findings indicate that LLM superiority stems from world knowledge, model selection should consider required granularity, and evaluation should account for error quality beyond accuracy.