# Beyond Immediate Activation: Temporally Decoupled Backdoor Attacks on Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.04247 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.04247/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [BadNets: Identifying Vulnerabilities in the Machine Learning Model Supply Chain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.06733/) (2017)
- [Reflection Backdoor: A Natural Backdoor Attack on Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02343/) (2020)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [AutoFormer: Searching Transformers for Visual Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00651/) (2021)
- [Diffusion-TS: Interpretable Diffusion for General Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01742/) (2024)
- [Clean-Label Backdoor Attacks on Video Recognition Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.03030/) (2020)
- [TimeCMA: Towards LLM-Empowered Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Cross-Modality Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01638/) (2024)
- [Rethinking the Trigger of Backdoor Attack](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04692/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [TimeGuard: Channel-wise Pool Training for Backdoor Defense in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.22365/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing backdoor attacks on multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting enforce strict temporal and dimensional coupling between triggers and target patterns, requiring synchronous activation at fixed positions across variables. However, realistic scenarios often demand delayed and variable-specific activation. We identify this critical unmet need and propose TDBA, a temporally decoupled backdoor attack framework for MTS forecasting. By injecting triggers that encode the expected location of the target pattern, TDBA enables the activation of the target pattern at any positions within the forecasted data, with the activation position flexibly varying across different variable dimensions. TDBA introduces two core modules: (1) a position-guided trigger generation mechanism that leverages smoothed Gaussian priors to generate triggers that are position-related to the predefined target pattern; and (2) a position-aware optimization module that assigns soft weights based on trigger completeness, pattern coverage, and temporal offset, facilitating targeted and stealthy attack optimization. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that TDBA consistently outperforms existing baselines in effectiveness while maintaining good stealthiness. Ablation studies confirm the controllability and robustness of its design.