# Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03673 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.03673/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [KAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19756/) (2024)
- [When and why PINNs fail to train: A neural tangent kernel perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.14527/) (2020)
- [Physics-Informed Neural Operator for Learning Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.03794/) (2021)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Quantifying total uncertainty in physics-informed neural networks for solving forward and inverse stochastic problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.08327/) (2018)
- [Deep physical neural networks enabled by a backpropagation algorithm for arbitrary physical systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.13386/) (2021)
- [From PINNs to PIKANs: Recent Advances in Physics-Informed Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13228/) (2024)
- [Residual-based attention in physics-informed neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.00379/) (2023)
- [Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks for real-world nonlinear dynamical systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.08304/) (2022)
- [Fusing Physics-based and Deep Learning Models for Prognostics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00732/) (2020)
- [BNNpriors: A library for Bayesian neural network inference with different prior distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06964/) (2021)
- [Self-adaptive weights based on balanced residual decay rate for physics-informed neural networks and deep operator networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01613/) (2024)
- [Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06320/) (2025)
- [Residual-based Attention Physics-informed Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Ageing Assessment of Transformers Operated in Renewable Power Plants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.06443/) (2024)
- [Conformalized Physics-Informed Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.08111/) (2024)
- [E-PINNs: Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19333/) (2025)
- [Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Networks for Reliable Transformer Prognostics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15933/) (2025)
- [A Hybrid Probabilistic Battery Health Management Approach for Robust Inspection Drone Operations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00055/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.