# Ahead of the Spread: Agent-Driven Virtual Propagation for Early Fake News Detection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02750 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.02750/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Social simulation and multi-agent debate, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 37 of its 79 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jan 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Social simulation and multi-agent debate](https://mlsanity.com/agents/social-simulation-and-multi-agent-debate/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
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- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [Deep Learning on a Data Diet: Finding Important Examples Early in Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07075/) (2021)
- [Beyond neural scaling laws: beating power law scaling via data pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14486/) (2022)
- [Using Large Language Models to Simulate Multiple Humans and Replicate Human Subject Studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.10264/) (2022)
- [GraphRNN: Generating Realistic Graphs with Deep Auto-regressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08773/) (2018)
- [Fake News Detection on Social Media: A Data Mining Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.01967/) (2017)
- [FakeNewsNet: A Data Repository with News Content, Social Context and Spatialtemporal Information for Studying Fake News on Social Media](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.01286/) (2018)
- [Exploring Large Language Models for Communication Games: An Empirical Study on Werewolf](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.04658/) (2023)
- [S3: Social-network Simulation System with Large Language Model-Empowered Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.14984/) (2023)
- [Agent Hospital: A Simulacrum of Hospital with Evolvable Medical Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02957/) (2024)
- [Rumor Detection on Social Media with Bi-Directional Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.06362/) (2020)
- [User Behavior Simulation with Large Language Model based Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02552/) (2023)
- [D-VAE: A Variational Autoencoder for Directed Acyclic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.11088/) (2019)
- [User Preference-aware Fake News Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.12259/) (2021)
- [Unveiling the Truth and Facilitating Change: Towards Agent-based Large-scale Social Movement Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16333/) (2024)
- [Fake News in Sheep's Clothing: Robust Fake News Detection Against LLM-Empowered Style Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10830/) (2023)
- [From Skepticism to Acceptance: Simulating the Attitude Dynamics Toward Fake News](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09498/) (2024)
- [Explainable Fake News Detection With Large Language Model via Defense Among Competing Wisdom](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03371/) (2024)
- [Towards Reliable Misinformation Mitigation: Generalization, Uncertainty, and GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14928/) (2023)
- [FactLLaMA: Optimizing Instruction-Following Language Models with External Knowledge for Automated Fact-Checking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.00240/) (2023)
- [Decomposition Dilemmas: Does Claim Decomposition Boost or Burden Fact-Checking Performance?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02400/) (2024)
- [PersonaX: A Recommendation Agent Oriented User Modeling Framework for Long Behavior Sequence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02398/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Early detection of fake news is critical for mitigating its rapid dissemination on social media, which can severely undermine public trust and social stability. Recent advancements show that incorporating propagation dynamics can significantly enhance detection performance compared to previous content-only approaches. However, this remains challenging at early stages due to the absence of observable propagation signals. To address this limitation, we propose AVOID, an underlineagent-driven underlinevirtual prunderlineopagatunderlineion for early fake news underlinedetection. AVOID reformulates early detection as a new paradigm of evidence generation, where propagation signals are actively simulated rather than passively observed. Leveraging LLM-powered agents with differentiated roles and data-driven personas, AVOID realistically constructs early-stage diffusion behaviors without requiring real propagation data. The resulting virtual trajectories provide complementary social evidence that enriches content-based detection, while a denoising-guided fusion strategy aligns simulated propagation with content semantics. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that AVOID consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness and practical value of virtual propagation augmentation for early fake news detection. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Ironychen/AVOID.