# Trustworthy Data-Driven Wildfire Risk Prediction and Understanding in Western Canada

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.01677 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01677/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 119 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, Taxonomies, Opportunities and Challenges toward Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10045/) (2019)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [Evaluating Scalable Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Robust Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01620/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Machine Learning -- A Brief History, State-of-the-Art and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.09337/) (2020)
- [A Deeper Look into Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.09308/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19460/) (2024)
- [A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00646/) (2020)
- [CrossLinear: Plug-and-Play Cross-Correlation Embedding for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23116/) (2025)
- [Mesogeos: A multi-purpose dataset for data-driven wildfire modeling in the Mediterranean](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05144/) (2023)
- [A Probabilistic Approach to Wildfire Spread Prediction Using a Denoising Diffusion Surrogate Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.00761/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25017/) (2025)
- [BCWildfire: A Long-term Multi-factor Dataset and Deep Learning Benchmark for Boreal Wildfire Risk Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17597/) (2025)
- [TeleViT1.0: Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformers for Subseasonal to Seasonal Wildfire Pattern Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00089/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In recent decades, the intensification of wildfire activity in western Canada has resulted in substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. Accurate wildfire risk prediction is hindered by the intrinsic stochasticity of ignition and spread and by nonlinear interactions among fuel conditions, meteorology, climate variability, topography, and human activities, challenging the reliability and interpretability of purely data-driven models. We propose a trustworthy data-driven wildfire risk prediction framework based on long-sequence, multi-scale temporal modeling, which integrates heterogeneous drivers while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty and enabling process-level interpretation. Evaluated over western Canada during the record-breaking 2023 and 2024 fire seasons, the proposed model outperforms existing time-series approaches, achieving an F1 score of 0.90 and a PR-AUC of 0.98 with low computational cost. Uncertainty-aware analysis reveals structured spatial and seasonal patterns in predictive confidence, highlighting increased uncertainty associated with ambiguous predictions and spatiotemporal decision boundaries. SHAP-based interpretation provides mechanistic understanding of wildfire controls, showing that temperature-related drivers dominate wildfire risk in both years, while moisture-related constraints play a stronger role in shaping spatial and land-cover-specific contrasts in 2024 compared to the widespread hot and dry conditions of 2023. Data and code are available at https://github.com/SynUW/mmFire.