# Latent-Constrained Conditional VAEs for Augmenting Large-Scale Climate Ensembles

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00915 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00915/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 2 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A Framework for Interdomain and Multioutput Gaussian Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01115/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.