# Deep versus Broad Technology Search and the Timing of Innovation Impact

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00871 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00871/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 98 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Bag of Tricks for Efficient Text Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.01759/) (2016)
- [Hyperbolic Graph Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12933/) (2019)
- [Diachronic Word Embeddings Reveal Statistical Laws of Semantic Change](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.09096/) (2016)
- [The Geometry of Culture: Analyzing Meaning through Word Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09288/) (2018)
- [Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.3293/) (2013)
- [Defining and identifying Sleeping Beauties in science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.06454/) (2015)
- [Quantifying the Cognitive Extent of Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.00040/) (2015)
- [Social Centralization and Semantic Collapse: Hyperbolic Embeddings of Networks and Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.09493/) (2020)
- [Limited Diffusion of Scientific Knowledge Forecasts Collapse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07468/) (2023)
- [Recency predicts bursts in the evolution of author citations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11926/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study offers a new perspective on the depth-versus-breadth debate in innovation strategy, by modeling inventive search within dynamic collective knowledge systems, and underscoring the importance of timing for technological impact. Using frontier machine learning to project patent citation networks in hyperbolic space, we analyze 4.9 million U.S. patents to examine how search strategies give rise to distinct temporal patterns in impact accumulation. We find that inventions based on deep search, which relies on a specialized understanding of complex recombination structures, drive higher short-term impact through early adoption within specialized communities, but face diminishing returns as innovations become "locked-in" with limited diffusion potential. Conversely, when inventions are grounded in broad search that spans disparate domains, they encounter initial resistance but achieve wider diffusion and greater long-term impact by reaching cognitively diverse audiences. Individual inventions require both depth and breadth for stable impact. Organizations can strategically balance approaches across multiple inventions: using depth to build reliable technological infrastructure while pursuing breadth to expand applications. We advance innovation theory by demonstrating how deep and broad search strategies distinctly shape the timing and trajectory of technological impact, and how individual inventors and organizations can leverage these mechanisms to balance exploitation and exploration.