# Toward Better Temporal Structures for Geopolitical Events Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00430 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00430/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Modeling Relational Data with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06103/) (2017)
- [Deep Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06114/) (2017)
- [Learning Sequence Encoders for Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.03202/) (2018)
- [Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning Based on Evolutional Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10353/) (2021)
- [Diachronic Embedding for Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03143/) (2019)
- [TimeTraveler: Reinforcement Learning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04101/) (2021)
- [Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with Historical Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.10904/) (2022)
- [Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting Without Knowledge Using In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10613/) (2023)
- [TGB 2.0: A Benchmark for Learning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Heterogeneous Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09639/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-History Reasoning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14382/) (2024)
- [History repeats Itself: A Baseline for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16726/) (2024)
- [xERTE: Explainable Reasoning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs for Forecasting Future Links](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15537/) (2020)
- [Temporal Fact Reasoning over Hyper-Relational Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10219/) (2023)
- [UniHR: Hierarchical Representation Learning for Unified Knowledge Graph Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.07019/) (2024)
- [Creating Custom Event Data Without Dictionaries: A Bag-of-Tricks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01331/) (2023)
- [LEMONADE: A Large Multilingual Expert-Annotated Abstractive Event Dataset for the Real World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00980/) (2025)
- [Two-dimensional Taxonomy for N-ary Knowledge Representation Learning Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05626/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [The Equivalence Theorem: First-Class Relationships for Structurally Complete Database Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.13603/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting on geopolitical temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) through the lens of large language models (LLMs) has recently gained traction. While TKGs and their generalization, hyper-relational temporal knowledge graphs (HTKGs), offer a straightforward structure to represent simple temporal relationships, they lack the expressive power to convey complex facts efficiently. One of the critical limitations of HTKGs is a lack of support for more than two primary entities in temporal facts, which commonly occur in real-world events. To address this limitation, in this work, we study a generalization of HTKGs, Hyper-Relational Temporal Knowledge Generalized Hypergraphs (HTKGHs). We first derive a formalization for HTKGHs, demonstrating their backward compatibility while supporting two complex types of facts commonly found in geopolitical incidents. Then, utilizing this formalization, we introduce the htkgh-polecat dataset, built upon the global event database POLECAT. Finally, we benchmark and analyze popular LLMs on our dataset, providing insights into 1) the positive impact of utilizing the HTKGH formalization compared to existing ones and 2) LLMs' adaptability and capabilities in complex forecasting tasks.