# Efficient Deep Learning for Short-Term Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting: A Benchmark Study in Ho Chi Minh City

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23898 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.23898/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Deep Compression: Compressing Deep Neural Networks with Pruning, Trained Quantization and Huffman Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.00149/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Energy and Policy Considerations for Deep Learning in NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02243/) (2019)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [TSMixer: An All-MLP Architecture for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06053/) (2023)
- [1D Convolutional Neural Networks and Applications: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03554/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is essential for mitigating the variability of solar energy in power grids. This study presents a comprehensive benchmark of ten deep learning architectures for short-term (1-hour ahead) GHI time series forecasting in Ho Chi Minh City, leveraging high-resolution NSRDB satellite data (2011-2020) to compare established baselines (e.g. LSTM, TCN) against emerging state-of-the-art architectures, including Transformer, Informer, iTransformer, TSMixer, and Mamba. Experimental results identify the Transformer as the superior architecture, achieving the highest predictive accuracy with an R^2 of 0.9696. The study further utilizes SHAP analysis to contrast the temporal reasoning of these architectures, revealing that Transformers exhibit a strong "recency bias" focused on immediate atmospheric conditions, whereas Mamba explicitly leverages 24-hour periodic dependencies to inform predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that Knowledge Distillation can compress the high-performance Transformer by 23.5% while surprisingly reducing error (MAE: 23.78 W/m^2), offering a proven pathway for deploying sophisticated, low-latency forecasting on resource-constrained edge devices.