# How Large Language Models Systematically Misrepresent American Climate Opinions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23889 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.23889/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 59 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06899/) (2022)
- [Bias and Fairness in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.00770/) (2023)
- [Lessons from the Trenches on Reproducible Evaluation of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14782/) (2024)
- [Large language models that replace human participants can harmfully misportray and flatten identity groups](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01908/) (2024)
- [BetterBench: Assessing AI Benchmarks, Uncovering Issues, and Establishing Best Practices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.12990/) (2024)
- [Questioning the Survey Responses of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07951/) (2023)
- [Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19379/) (2024)
- [Gender, Race, and Intersectional Bias in Resume Screening via Language Model Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.20371/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Intersectional Fairness in Machine Learning: Notions, Mitigation, and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06969/) (2023)
- [Understanding Intrinsic Socioeconomic Biases in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18662/) (2024)
- [Llms, Virtual Users, and Bias: Predicting Any Survey Question Without Human Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16498/) (2025)
- [Climate-Eval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for NLP Tasks Related to Climate Change](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18653/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Federal agencies and researchers increasingly use large language models to analyze and simulate public opinion. When AI mediates between the public and policymakers, accuracy across intersecting identities becomes consequential; inaccurate group-level estimates may mislead outreach, consultation, and policy design. While research examines intersectionality in LLM outputs, few studies have compared these outputs against real human responses across intersecting identities. Climate policy is one such domain, and this is particularly urgent for climate change, where opinion is contested and diverse. We investigate how LLMs represent demographic and intersectional patterns in U.S. climate opinions. We prompted six LLMs with profiles of 978 respondents from a nationally representative U.S. climate opinion survey and compared AI-generated responses to actual human answers across 20 questions. We find that LLMs appear to compress the diversity of American climate opinions, predicting less-concerned groups as more concerned and vice versa. This compression is intersectional: LLMs appear to apply uniform gender assumptions that match reality for White and Hispanic Americans but may misrepresent Black Americans, where actual gender patterns differ. These patterns, which may be invisible to standard auditing approaches, could undermine equitable climate governance.