# Emergent World Beliefs: Exploring Transformers in Stochastic Games

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23722 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.23722/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 15 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10122/) (2018)
- [Sparse Autoencoders Find Highly Interpretable Features in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08600/) (2023)
- [Toy Models of Superposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.10652/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning and the Information Bottleneck Principle](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02406/) (2015)
- [Eliciting Latent Predictions from Transformers with the Tuned Lens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08112/) (2023)
- [Emergent World Representations: Exploring a Sequence Model Trained on a Synthetic Task](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13382/) (2022)
- [Emergent Linear Representations in World Models of Self-Supervised Sequence Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.00941/) (2023)
- [Language Models Represent Space and Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02207/) (2023)
- [Transformers represent belief state geometry in their residual stream](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15943/) (2024)
- [Emergent World Models and Latent Variable Estimation in Chess-Playing Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15498/) (2024)
- [The Low-Dimensional Linear Geometry of Contextualized Word Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.07109/) (2021)
- [Complete Chess Games Enable LLM Become A Chess Master](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.17186/) (2025)
- [Evaluating GPT- and Reasoning-based Large Language Models on Physics Olympiad Problems: Surpassing Human Performance and Implications for Educational Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09438/) (2025)
- [Recording and Describing Poker Hands](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11753/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Agent-BRACE: Decoupling Beliefs from Actions in Long-Horizon Tasks via Verbalized State Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.11436/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning abilities across diverse fields, from solving programming challenges to competing in strategy-intensive games such as chess. Prior work has shown that LLMs can develop emergent world models in games of perfect information, where internal representations correspond to latent states of the environment. In this paper, we extend this line of investigation to domains of incomplete information, focusing on poker as a canonical partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We pretrain a GPT-style model on Poker Hand History (PHH) data and probe its internal activations. Our results demonstrate that the model learns both deterministic structure, such as hand ranks, and stochastic features, such as equity, without explicit instruction. Furthermore, by using primarily nonlinear probes, we demonstrated that these representations are decodeable and correlate with theoretical belief states, suggesting that LLMs are learning their own representation of the stochastic environment of Texas Hold'em Poker.