# The Gaining Paths to Investment Success: Information-Driven LLM Graph Reasoning for Venture Capital Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23489 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.23489/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 11 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.3781/) (2013)
- [Reasoning on Graphs: Faithful and Interpretable Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01061/) (2023)
- [Think-on-Graph: Deep and Responsible Reasoning of Large Language Model on Knowledge Graph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.07697/) (2023)
- [GNN-RAG: Graph Neural Retrieval for Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20139/) (2024)
- [Batch Calibration: Rethinking Calibration for In-Context Learning and Prompt Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17249/) (2023)
- [FinGPT: Democratizing Internet-scale Data for Financial Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10485/) (2023)
- [Diagnosing and Addressing Pitfalls in KG-RAG Datasets: Toward More Reliable Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23495/) (2025)
- [StockGPT: A GenAI Model for Stock Prediction and Trading](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05101/) (2024)
- [SSFF: Investigating LLM Predictive Capabilities for Startup Success through a Multi-Agent Framework with Enhanced Explainability and Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19456/) (2024)
- [Beyond the Next Token: Towards Prompt-Robust Zero-Shot Classification via Efficient Multi-Token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03159/) (2025)
- [Graph Neural Network Based VC Investment Success Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.11537/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [FinCARDS: Card-Based Analyst Reranking for Financial Document Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06992/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Most venture capital (VC) investments fail, while a few deliver outsized returns. Accurately predicting startup success requires synthesizing complex relational evidence, including company disclosures, investor track records, and investment network structures, through explicit reasoning to form coherent, interpretable investment theses. Traditional machine learning and graph neural networks both lack this reasoning capability. Large language models (LLMs) offer strong reasoning but face a modality mismatch with graphs. Recent graph-LLM methods target in-graph tasks where answers lie within the graph, whereas VC prediction is off-graph: the target exists outside the network. The core challenge is selecting graph paths that maximize predictor performance on an external objective while enabling step-by-step reasoning. We present MIRAGE-VC, a multi-perspective retrieval-augmented generation framework that addresses two obstacles: path explosion (thousands of candidate paths overwhelm LLM context) and heterogeneous evidence fusion (different startups need different analytical emphasis). Our information-gain-driven path retriever iteratively selects high-value neighbors, distilling investment networks into compact chains for explicit reasoning. A multi-agent architecture integrates three evidence streams via a learnable gating mechanism based on company attributes. Under strict anti-leakage controls, MIRAGE-VC achieves +5.0% F1 and +16.6% PrecisionAt5, and sheds light on other off-graph prediction tasks such as recommendation and risk assessment. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MIRAGE-VC-323F.