# Autoregressive Flow Matching for Motion Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.22688 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.22688/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Video generation, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 48 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Video generation](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/video-generation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 48)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [SAM 2: Segment Anything in Images and Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00714/) (2024)
- [RAFT: Recurrent All-Pairs Field Transforms for Optical Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12039/) (2020)
- [RT-1: Robotics Transformer for Real-World Control at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06817/) (2022)
- [The Kinetics Human Action Video Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.06950/) (2017)
- [Human Motion Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14916/) (2022)
- [HowTo100M: Learning a Text-Video Embedding by Watching Hundred Million Narrated Video Clips](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03327/) (2019)
- [Cosmos World Foundation Model Platform for Physical AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03575/) (2025)
- [Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08864/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [R3M: A Universal Visual Representation for Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12601/) (2022)
- [Diffusion Forcing: Next-token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01392/) (2024)
- [BridgeData V2: A Dataset for Robot Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12952/) (2023)
- [CALVIN: A Benchmark for Language-Conditioned Policy Learning for Long-Horizon Robot Manipulation Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03227/) (2021)
- [Learning Universal Policies via Text-Guided Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00111/) (2023)
- [Unleashing Large-Scale Video Generative Pre-training for Visual Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.13139/) (2023)
- [MimicGen: A Data Generation System for Scalable Robot Learning using Human Demonstrations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17596/) (2023)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [PointOdyssey: A Large-Scale Synthetic Dataset for Long-Term Point Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15055/) (2023)
- [Unsupervised Learning for Physical Interaction through Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07157/) (2016)
- [Motion-X: A Large-scale 3D Expressive Whole-body Human Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.00818/) (2023)
- [Affordances from Human Videos as a Versatile Representation for Robotics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08488/) (2023)
- [Interactive Language: Talking to Robots in Real Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06407/) (2022)
- [Particle Video Revisited: Tracking Through Occlusions Using Point Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.04153/) (2022)
- [Any-point Trajectory Modeling for Policy Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00025/) (2023)
- [Object Motion Guided Human Motion Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16237/) (2023)
- [Motion-I2V: Consistent and Controllable Image-to-Video Generation with Explicit Motion Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15977/) (2024)
- [ManiSkill: Generalizable Manipulation Skill Benchmark with Large-Scale Demonstrations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.14483/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [(HB-ARFM) History-Bootstrapped Flow Matching for Inverse Boiling Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00349/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Motion prediction has been studied in different contexts with models trained on narrow distributions and applied to downstream tasks in human motion prediction and robotics. Simultaneously, recent efforts in scaling video prediction have demonstrated impressive visual realism, yet they struggle to accurately model complex motions despite massive scale. Inspired by the scaling of video generation, we develop autoregressive flow matching (ARFM), a new method for probabilistic modeling of sequential continuous data and train it on diverse video datasets to generate future point track locations over long horizons. To evaluate our model, we develop benchmarks for evaluating the ability of motion prediction models to predict human and robot motion. Our model is able to predict complex motions, and we demonstrate that conditioning robot action prediction and human motion prediction on predicted future tracks can significantly improve downstream task performance. Code and models publicly available at: https://github.com/Johnathan-Xie/arfm-motion-prediction.