# Synthetic Financial Data Generation for Enhanced Financial Modelling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.21791 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.21791/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Modeling Tabular data using Conditional GAN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00503/) (2019)
- [TabDDPM: Modelling Tabular Data with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15421/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Data scarcity and confidentiality in finance often impede model development and robust testing. This paper presents a unified multi-criteria evaluation framework for synthetic financial data and applies it to three representative generative paradigms: the statistical ARIMA-GARCH baseline, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Time-series Generative Adversarial Networks (TimeGAN). Using historical S and P 500 daily data, we evaluate fidelity (Maximum Mean Discrepancy, MMD), temporal structure (autocorrelation and volatility clustering), and practical utility in downstream tasks, specifically mean-variance portfolio optimization and volatility forecasting. Empirical results indicate that ARIMA-GARCH captures linear trends and conditional volatility but fails to reproduce nonlinear dynamics; VAEs produce smooth trajectories that underestimate extreme events; and TimeGAN achieves the best trade-off between realism and temporal coherence (e.g., TimeGAN attained the lowest MMD: 1.84e-3, average over 5 seeds). Finally, we articulate practical guidelines for selecting generative models according to application needs and computational constraints. Our unified evaluation protocol and reproducible codebase aim to standardize benchmarking in synthetic financial data research.