# Optimizing Decoding Paths in Masked Diffusion Models by Quantifying Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.21336 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.21336/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Discrete and text diffusion, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 42 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Discrete and text diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/discrete-and-text-diffusion/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Structured Denoising Diffusion Models in Discrete State-Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03006/) (2021)
- [MaskGIT: Masked Generative Image Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.04200/) (2022)
- [Large Language Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09992/) (2025)
- [Simple and Effective Masked Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07524/) (2024)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Discrete Diffusion Modeling by Estimating the Ratios of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16834/) (2023)
- [Simplified and Generalized Masked Diffusion for Discrete Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04329/) (2024)
- [Dream 7B: Diffusion Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15487/) (2025)
- [Fast-dLLM: Training-free Acceleration of Diffusion LLM by Enabling KV Cache and Parallel Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22618/) (2025)
- [Block Diffusion: Interpolating Between Autoregressive and Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09573/) (2025)
- [Your Absorbing Discrete Diffusion Secretly Models the Conditional Distributions of Clean Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03736/) (2024)
- [Discrete Flow Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15595/) (2024)
- [LLaDA 1.5: Variance-Reduced Preference Optimization for Large Language Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19223/) (2025)
- [Scaling Diffusion Language Models via Adaptation from Autoregressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17891/) (2024)
- [A General Framework for Inference-time Scaling and Steering of Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.06848/) (2025)
- [DiffusionBERT: Improving Generative Masked Language Models with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15029/) (2022)
- [Train for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Understanding Token Ordering in Masked Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06768/) (2025)
- [Masked Diffusion Models are Secretly Time-Agnostic Masked Models and Exploit Inaccurate Categorical Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02908/) (2024)
- [SSD-LM: Semi-autoregressive Simplex-based Diffusion Language Model for Text Generation and Modular Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17432/) (2022)
- [Remasking Discrete Diffusion Models with Inference-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00307/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Neither Parallel Nor Sequential: How DiffusionGemma Actually Commits Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.14620/) (2026)
- [On the Trainability of Masked Diffusion Language Models via Blockwise Locality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.24832/) (2026)
- [Lookahead Path Likelihood Optimization for Diffusion LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03496/) (2026)
- [D5P4: Partition Determinantal Point Process for Diversity in Parallel Discrete Diffusion Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19146/) (2026)
- [Visual-Redundancy-Controlled Parallel Decoding for Diffusion-Based Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25820/) (2026)
- [Decoding in Order-Agnostic Language Models: Chain-Rule Deviation and Uniform Spreading](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00997/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer flexible, non-autoregressive generation, but this freedom introduces a challenge: final output quality is highly sensitive to the decoding order. We are the first to formalize this issue, attributing the variability in output quality to the cumulative predictive uncertainty along a generative path. To quantify this uncertainty, we introduce Denoising Entropy, a computable metric that serves as an internal signal for evaluating generative process. Leveraging this metric, we propose two algorithms designed to optimize the decoding path: a post-hoc selection method and a real-time guidance strategy. Experiments demonstrate that our entropy-guided methods significantly improve generation quality, consistently boosting accuracy on challenging reasoning, planning, and code benchmarks. Our work establishes Denoising Entropy as a principled tool for understanding and controlling generation, effectively turning the uncertainty in MDMs from a liability into a key advantage for discovering high-quality solutions.