# Toward Ethical AI Through Bayesian Uncertainty in Neural Question Answering

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17677 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.17677/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
- [How Can We Know What Language Models Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12543/) (2019)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02757/) (2019)
- [Laplace Redux -- Effortless Bayesian Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.14806/) (2021)
- [Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07892/) (2020)
- [Composable Effects for Flexible and Accelerated Probabilistic Programming in NumPyro](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.11554/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We explore Bayesian reasoning as a means to quantify uncertainty in neural networks for question answering. Starting with a multilayer perceptron on the Iris dataset, we show how posterior inference conveys confidence in predictions. We then extend this to language models, applying Bayesian inference first to a frozen head and finally to LoRA-adapted transformers, evaluated on the CommonsenseQA benchmark. Rather than aiming for state-of-the-art accuracy, we compare Laplace approximations against maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates to highlight uncertainty calibration and selective prediction. This allows models to abstain when confidence is low. An ``I don't know'' response not only improves interpretability but also illustrates how Bayesian methods can contribute to more responsible and ethical deployment of neural question-answering systems.