# EventGPT: Capturing Player Impact from Team Action Sequences Using GPT-Based Framework

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17266 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.17266/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 15 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [RisingBALLER: A player is a token, a match is a sentence, A path towards a foundational model for football players data analytics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.00943/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Modeling Matches as Language: A Generative Transformer Approach for Counterfactual Player Valuation in Football](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15212/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Transfers play a pivotal role in shaping a football club's success, yet forecasting whether a transfer will succeed remains difficult due to the strong context-dependence of on-field performance. Existing evaluation practices often rely on static summary statistics or post-hoc value models, which fail to capture how a player's contribution adapts to a new tactical environment or different teammates. To address this gap, we introduce EventGPT, a player-conditioned, value-aware next-event prediction model built on a GPT-style autoregressive transformer. Our model treats match play as a sequence of discrete tokens, jointly learning to predict the next on-ball action's type, location, timing, and its estimated residual On-Ball Value (rOBV) based on the preceding context and player identity. A key contribution of this framework is the ability to perform counterfactual simulations. By substituting learned player embeddings into new event sequences, we can simulate how a player's behavioral distribution and value profile would change when placed in a different team or tactical structure. Evaluated on five seasons of Premier League event data, EventGPT outperforms existing sequence-based baselines in next-event prediction accuracy and spatial precision. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model's practical utility for transfer analysis through case studies-such as comparing striker performance across different systems and identifying stylistic replacements for specific roles-showing that our approach provides a principled method for evaluating transfer fit.