# Realistic threat perception drives intergroup conflict: A causal, dynamic analysis using generative-agent simulations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17066 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.17066/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Social simulation and multi-agent debate, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 6 of its 74 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Social simulation and multi-agent debate](https://mlsanity.com/agents/social-simulation-and-multi-agent-debate/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [Persona Vectors: Monitoring and Controlling Character Traits in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21509/) (2025)
- [LLM Agents Grounded in Self-Reports Enable General-Purpose Simulation of Individuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.10109/) (2024)
- [The Homogenizing Effect of Large Language Models on Human Expression and Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01491/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Why LLM Agents Favor Their Group: Stakes, Observed Norms, and Reputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.11008/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Human conflict is often attributed to threats against material conditions and symbolic values, yet it remains unclear how they interact and which dominates. Progress is limited by weak causal control, ethical constraints, and scarce temporal data. We address these barriers using simulations of large language model (LLM)-driven agents in virtual societies, independently varying realistic and symbolic threat while tracking actions, language, and attitudes. Representational analyses show that the underlying LLM encodes realistic threat, symbolic threat, and hostility as distinct internal states, that our manipulations map onto them, and that steering these states causally shifts behavior. Our simulations provide a causal account of threat-driven conflict over time: realistic threat directly increases hostility, whereas symbolic threat effects are weaker, fully mediated by ingroup bias, and increase hostility only when realistic threat is absent. Non-hostile intergroup contact buffers escalation, and structural asymmetries concentrate hostility among majority groups.