# In-Context Probing for Membership Inference in Fine-Tuned Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16292 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.16292/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Membership inference attacks, one of 12 directions in LLM safety and security.
- Builds on 56 of its 77 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM safety and security / [Membership inference attacks](https://mlsanity.com/safety/membership-inference-attacks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Prefix-Tuning: Optimizing Continuous Prompts for Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.00190/) (2021)
- [The Power of Scale for Parameter-Efficient Prompt Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08691/) (2021)
- [QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14314/) (2023)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning with Differential Privacy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.00133/) (2016)
- [Character-level Convolutional Networks for Text Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.01626/) (2015)
- [Membership Inference Attacks against Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.05820/) (2016)
- [Extracting Training Data from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07805/) (2020)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01373/) (2023)
- [Don't Give Me the Details, Just the Summary! Topic-Aware Convolutional Neural Networks for Extreme Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.08745/) (2018)
- [Teaching Machines to Read and Comprehend](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03340/) (2015)
- [Membership Inference Attacks From First Principles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03570/) (2021)
- [DoRA: Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09353/) (2024)
- [P-Tuning v2: Prompt Tuning Can Be Comparable to Fine-tuning Universally Across Scales and Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.07602/) (2021)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [TOFU: A Task of Fictitious Unlearning for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06121/) (2024)
- [Recent Advances in Natural Language Processing via Large Pre-Trained Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.01243/) (2021)
- [Differentially Private Fine-tuning of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06500/) (2021)
- [Detecting Pretraining Data from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16789/) (2023)
- [Fine-Tuning Pretrained Language Models: Weight Initializations, Data Orders, and Early Stopping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06305/) (2020)
- [LoRA+: Efficient Low Rank Adaptation of Large Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12354/) (2024)
- [ChatDoctor: A Medical Chat Model Fine-Tuned on a Large Language Model Meta-AI (LLaMA) Using Medical Domain Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14070/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Have You Ever Seen Them? Entity-level Membership Inference through Interrogating Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.23030/) (2026)
- [One Framework for All: Cross-Modal Membership Inference for Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.04339/) (2026)
- [CIG-MIA: Context-Induced Information Gain Membership Inference Attacks against Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.14649/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) pose a critical privacy threat to fine-tuned large language models (LLMs), especially when models are adapted to domain-specific tasks using sensitive data. While prior black-box MIA techniques rely on confidence scores or token likelihoods, these signals are often entangled with a sample's intrinsic properties - such as content difficulty or rarity - leading to poor generalization and low signal-to-noise ratios. In this paper, we propose ICP-MIA, a novel MIA framework grounded in the theory of training dynamics, particularly the phenomenon of diminishing returns during optimization. We introduce the Optimization Gap as a fundamental signal of membership: at convergence, member samples exhibit minimal remaining loss-reduction potential, while non-members retain significant potential for further optimization. To estimate this gap in a black-box setting, we propose In-Context Probing (ICP), a training-free method that simulates fine-tuning-like behavior via strategically constructed input contexts. We propose two probing strategies: reference-data-based (using semantically similar public samples) and self-perturbation (via masking or generation). Experiments on three tasks and multiple LLMs show that ICP-MIA significantly outperforms prior black-box MIAs, particularly at low false positive rates. We further analyze how reference data alignment, model type, PEFT configurations, and training schedules affect attack effectiveness. Our findings establish ICP-MIA as a practical and theoretically grounded framework for auditing privacy risks in deployed LLMs.