# TiCard: Deployable EXPLAIN-only Residual Learning for Cardinality Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.14358 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.14358/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.00677/) (2018)
- [Bao: Learning to Steer Query Optimizers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.03814/) (2020)
- [A Unified Deep Model of Learning from both Data and Queries for Cardinality Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.12295/) (2021)
- [Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.01441/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Advancing the DBMS Query Optimizer: Cardinality Estimation, Cost Model, and Plan Enumeration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01507/) (2021)
- [FactorJoin: A New Cardinality Estimation Framework for Join Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.05526/) (2022)
- [PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01027/) (2024)
- [Estimating Cardinalities with Deep Sketches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.08223/) (2019)
- [CardBench: A Benchmark for Learned Cardinality Estimation in Relational Databases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.16170/) (2024)
- [A Unified Model for Cardinality Estimation by Learning from Data and Queries via Sum-Product Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08318/) (2025)
- [DistJoin: A Decoupled Join Cardinality Estimator based on Adaptive Neural Predicate Modulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.08994/) (2025)
- [Data-Agnostic Cardinality Learning from Imperfect Workloads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.16007/) (2025)
- [Is it Bigger than a Breadbox: Efficient Cardinality Estimation for Real World Workloads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03386/) (2025)
- [Redefining Cost Estimation in Database Systems: The Role of Execution Plan Features and Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.05612/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Cardinality estimation is a key bottleneck for cost-based query optimization, yet deployable improvements remain difficult: classical estimators miss correlations, while learned estimators often require workload-specific training pipelines and invasive integration into the optimizer. This paper presents TiCard, a low intrusion, correction-based framework that augments (rather than replaces) a database's native estimator. TiCard learns multiplicative residual corrections using EXPLAIN-only features, and uses EXPLAIN ANALYZE only for offline labels. We study two practical instantiations: (i) a Gradient Boosting Regressor for sub-millisecond inference, and (ii) TabPFN, an in-context tabular foundation model that adapts by refreshing a small reference set without gradient retraining. On TiDB with TPCH and the Join Order Benchmark, in a low-trace setting (263 executions total; 157 used for learning), TiCard improves operator-level tail accuracy substantially: P90 Q-error drops from 312.85 (native) to 13.69 (TiCard-GBR), and P99 drops from 37,974.37 to 3,416.50 (TiCard-TabPFN), while a join-only policy preserves near-perfect median behavior. We position TiCard as an AI4DB building block focused on deployability: explicit scope, conservative integration policies, and an integration roadmap from offline correction to in-optimizer use.