# TRACER: Transfer Learning based Real-time Adaptation for Clinical Evolving Risk

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12795 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.12795/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Transfer Learning for High-dimensional Linear Regression: Prediction, Estimation, and Minimax Optimality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10593/) (2020)
- [Bridging Data Gaps in Healthcare: A Scoping Review of Transfer Learning in Biomedical Data Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11034/) (2024)
- [A Unified Meta-Learning Framework for Dynamic Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01784/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Clinical decision support tools built on electronic health records often experience performance drift due to temporal population shifts, particularly when changes in the clinical environment initially affect only a subset of patients, resulting in a transition to mixed populations. Such case-mix changes commonly arise following system-level operational updates or the emergence of new diseases, such as COVID-19. We propose TRACER (Transfer Learning-based Real-time Adaptation for Clinical Evolving Risk), a framework that identifies encounter-level transition membership and adapts predictive models using transfer learning without full retraining. In simulation studies, TRACER outperformed static models trained on historical or contemporary data. In a real-world application predicting hospital admission following emergency department visits across the COVID-19 transition, TRACER improved both discrimination and calibration. TRACER provides a scalable approach for maintaining robust predictive performance under evolving and heterogeneous clinical conditions.