# Multicalibration for LLM-based Code Generation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.08810 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08810/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Asleep at the Keyboard? Assessing the Security of GitHub Copilot's Code Contributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09293/) (2021)
- [Large Language Models for Software Engineering: A Systematic Literature Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10620/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [Multiaccuracy: Black-Box Post-Processing for Fairness in Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12317/) (2018)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [CodeBERTScore: Evaluating Code Generation with Pretrained Models of Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05527/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [Loss Minimization through the Lens of Outcome Indistinguishability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08649/) (2022)
- [Bugs in Large Language Models Generated Code: An Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08937/) (2024)
- [On Early Detection of Hallucinations in Factual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14183/) (2023)
- [Calibration and Correctness of Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02047/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models and Simple, Stupid Bugs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11455/) (2023)
- [CodeJudge: Evaluating Code Generation with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02184/) (2024)
- [A Deep Dive into Large Language Models for Automated Bug Localization and Repair](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11595/) (2024)
- [MCTS-Judge: Test-Time Scaling in LLM-as-a-Judge for Code Correctness Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12468/) (2025)
- [When is Multicalibration Post-Processing Necessary?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06487/) (2024)
- [Correctness Assessment of Code Generated by Large Language Models Using Internal Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12934/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Beyond Semantic Relevance: Counterfactual Risk Minimization for Robust Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01302/) (2026)
- [Code-MUE: Measuring Code LLMs' Uncertainty through Execution-based Semantic Interaction Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12273/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.