# Model-Based Diffusion Sampling for Predictive Control in Offline Decision Making

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.08280 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08280/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 51 of its 69 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 51)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Diffusion Policy: Visuomotor Policy Learning via Action Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04137/) (2023)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Conservative Q-Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04779/) (2020)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Decision Transformer: Reinforcement Learning via Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01345/) (2021)
- [Group Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.08494/) (2018)
- [World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10122/) (2018)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [Off-Policy Deep Reinforcement Learning without Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.02900/) (2018)
- [Planning with Diffusion for Flexible Behavior Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09991/) (2022)
- [Constrained Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.10528/) (2017)
- [Hamiltonian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01563/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Forcing: Next-token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01392/) (2024)
- [Diffusion Policies as an Expressive Policy Class for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.06193/) (2022)
- [Is Conditional Generative Modeling all you need for Decision-Making?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15657/) (2022)
- [Reward Constrained Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.11074/) (2018)
- [Lagrangian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.04630/) (2020)
- [COMBO: Conservative Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08363/) (2021)
- [IDQL: Implicit Q-Learning as an Actor-Critic Method with Diffusion Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.10573/) (2023)
- [Reinforcement Learning in Healthcare: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.08796/) (2019)
- [Orbit: A Unified Simulation Framework for Interactive Robot Learning Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04195/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Planning as Descent: Goal-Conditioned Latent Trajectory Synthesis in Learned Energy Landscapes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.17846/) (2025)
- [Expressivity and Statistical Trade-offs in Diffusion Policy Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.07967/) (2026)
- [Model-Based Online Decision Making via Generative Trajectory Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.18677/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Offline decision-making via diffusion models often produces trajectories that are misaligned with system dynamics, limiting their reliability for control. We propose Model Predictive Diffuser (MPDiffuser), a compositional diffusion framework that combines a diffusion planner with a dynamics diffusion model to generate task-aligned and dynamically plausible trajectories. MPDiffuser interleaves planner and dynamics updates during sampling, progressively correcting feasibility while preserving task intent. A lightweight ranking module then selects trajectories that best satisfy task objectives. The compositional design improves sample efficiency and adaptability by enabling the dynamics model to leverage diverse and previously unseen data independently of the planner. Empirically, we demonstrate consistent improvements over prior diffusion-based methods on unconstrained (D4RL) and constrained (DSRL) benchmarks, and validate practicality through deployment on a real quadrupedal robot.