# Time Series Foundation Models for Process Model Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.07624 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.07624/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 67 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Dec 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning for Large Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14608/) (2024)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [LoRA Learns Less and Forgets Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09673/) (2024)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [TimeGPT-1](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03589/) (2023)
- [Predictive Business Process Monitoring with LSTM Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.02130/) (2016)
- [The Capacity and Robustness Trade-off: Revisiting the Channel Independent Strategy for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05206/) (2023)
- [Self-Supervised Learning for Time Series Analysis: Taxonomy, Progress, and Prospects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10125/) (2023)
- [Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10469/) (2024)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)
- [fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26468/) (2025)
- [TSFM-Bench: A Comprehensive and Unified Benchmark of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.11802/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Time-Series Pre-Trained Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10716/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20002/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on single-case prefixes. Prior benchmarks show that machine learning and deep learning models provide only modest gains over statistical baselines, mainly due to the sparsity and heterogeneity of the DF time series. We investigate Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), large pre-trained models for generic time series, as an alternative for PMF. Using DF time series derived from real-life event logs, we compare zero-shot use of TSFMs, without additional training, with fine-tuned variants adapted on PMF-specific data. TSFMs generally achieve lower forecasting errors (MAE and RMSE) than traditional and specialized models trained from scratch on the same logs, indicating effective transfer of temporal structure from non-process domains. While fine-tuning can further improve accuracy, the gains are often small and may disappear on smaller or more complex datasets, so zero-shot use remains a strong default. Our study highlights the generalization capability and data efficiency of TSFMs for process-related time series and, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first systematic evaluation of temporal foundation models for PMF.