# World Models That Know When They Don't Know - Controllable Video Generation with Calibrated Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05927 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.05927/

## Key facts

- Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Embodied and robot world models, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 39 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- World models / [Embodied and robot world models](https://mlsanity.com/wm/embodied-and-robot-world-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Neural Discrete Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00937/) (2017)
- [Taming Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09841/) (2020)
- [Wan: Open and Advanced Large-Scale Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20314/) (2025)
- [Large Scale GAN Training for High Fidelity Natural Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11096/) (2018)
- [Stable Video Diffusion: Scaling Latent Video Diffusion Models to Large Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.15127/) (2023)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [CogVideoX: Text-to-Video Diffusion Models with An Expert Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06072/) (2024)
- [HunyuanVideo: A Systematic Framework For Large Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03603/) (2024)
- [Align your Latents: High-Resolution Video Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08818/) (2023)
- [Cosmos World Foundation Model Platform for Physical AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03575/) (2025)
- [DROID: A Large-Scale In-The-Wild Robot Manipulation Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12945/) (2024)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Forcing: Next-token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01392/) (2024)
- [Which Training Methods for GANs do actually Converge?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.04406/) (2018)
- [BridgeData V2: A Dataset for Robot Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12952/) (2023)
- [VideoPoet: A Large Language Model for Zero-Shot Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14125/) (2023)
- [Generating Videos with Scene Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02612/) (2016)
- [Dynamic Filter Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.09673/) (2016)
- [Unsupervised Learning for Physical Interaction through Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07157/) (2016)
- [Stochastic Variational Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11252/) (2017)
- [Visual Foresight: Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning for Vision-Based Robotic Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.00568/) (2018)
- [Video Frame Synthesis using Deep Voxel Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.02463/) (2017)
- [On the Convergence of A Class of Adam-Type Algorithms for Non-Convex Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.02941/) (2018)
- [Stochastic Adversarial Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.01523/) (2018)
- [Ctrl-World: A Controllable Generative World Model for Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10125/) (2025)
- [Open-Sora 2.0: Training a Commercial-Level Video Generation Model in 200k](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09642/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [RHO: Your Coding Agent is Secretly a Roboticist](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.16458/) (2026)
- [PlayWorld: Learning Robot World Models from Autonomous Play](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09030/) (2026)
- [Robotic Video World Models: A Survey of Applications, Research Challenges, Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.07823/) (2026)
- [SC3-Eval: Evaluating Robot Foundation Models via Self-Consistent Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18610/) (2026)
- [When to Act, Ask, or Learn: Uncertainty-Aware Policy Steering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22474/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18043/) (2026)
- [CaliBench: Are the Stochastic Dynamics of Video World Models Physically Calibrated?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16829/) (2026)
- [Robots Need More than VLA and World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.06556/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware World Model for Aerial Image-Goal Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05597/) (2026)
- [CLAP: Cross-Embodiment Video World Models are Zero-Shot Physical Simulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27406/) (2026)
- [World Models for Embodied Intelligence: From Plausible to Controllable to Actionable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.16697/) (2026)
- [Towards Trustworthy Physical Intelligence: From Theory to Practice Across Life Cycle](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.22877/) (2026)
- [DreamLedger: Where to Refuse World-Model Imagination Using Execution-Settled Credit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.23863/) (2026)
- [ConfAL-WM: Confidence-Guided Active Learning for Action-Conditioned World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.25572/) (2026)
- [PAWBench: How Far Are We from Probabilistically Aligned World Modeling?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27345/) (2026)
- [DUET-DINO: Simultaneous Cross-View World Modeling for Latent Planning in Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.10506/) (2026)
- [MEND: Label-Free Detection, Localisation, and Correction of Latent Hallucination in World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39182/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in instruction-guided video editing and world modeling in robotics. Despite these exceptional capabilities, controllable video models often hallucinate - generating future video frames that are misaligned with physical reality - which raises serious concerns in many tasks such as robot policy evaluation and planning. However, state-of-the-art video models lack the ability to assess and express their confidence, impeding hallucination mitigation. To rigorously address this challenge, we propose C3, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for training continuous-scale calibrated controllable video models for dense confidence estimation at the subpatch level, precisely localizing the uncertainty in each generated video frame. Our UQ method introduces three core innovations to empower video models to estimate their uncertainty. First, our method develops a novel framework that trains video models for correctness and calibration via strictly proper scoring rules. Second, we estimate the video model's uncertainty in latent space, avoiding training instability and prohibitive training costs associated with pixel-space approaches. Third, we map the dense latent-space uncertainty to interpretable pixel-level uncertainty in the RGB space for intuitive visualization, providing high-resolution uncertainty heatmaps that identify untrustworthy regions. Through extensive experiments on large-scale robot learning datasets (Bridge and DROID) and real-world evaluations, we demonstrate that our method not only provides calibrated uncertainty estimates within the training distribution, but also enables effective out-of-distribution detection.