# Long-Horizon Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning Without Explicit Conservatism

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04341 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.04341/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Offline RL algorithms, one of 13 directions in Offline RL and imitation learning from data.
- Builds on 103 of its 140 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Offline RL and imitation learning from data / [Offline RL algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/offlinerl/offline-rl-algorithms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 103)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Playing Atari with Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.5602/) (2013)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning: Tutorial, Review, and Perspectives on Open Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01643/) (2020)
- [Conservative Q-Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04779/) (2020)
- [Decision Transformer: Reinforcement Learning via Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01345/) (2021)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning with Implicit Q-Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06169/) (2021)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Mastering Diverse Domains through World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04104/) (2023)
- [Off-Policy Deep Reinforcement Learning without Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.02900/) (2018)
- [Soft Actor-Critic Algorithms and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.05905/) (2018)
- [Stabilizing Off-Policy Q-Learning via Bootstrapping Error Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00949/) (2019)
- [Dueling Network Architectures for Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06581/) (2015)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [AWAC: Accelerating Online Reinforcement Learning with Offline Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09359/) (2020)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning as One Big Sequence Modeling Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02039/) (2021)
- [MOReL : Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.05951/) (2020)
- [Deep Exploration via Bootstrapped DQN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04621/) (2016)
- [TD-MPC2: Scalable, Robust World Models for Continuous Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16828/) (2023)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02757/) (2019)
- [Resurrecting Recurrent Neural Networks for Long Sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06349/) (2023)
- [COMBO: Conservative Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08363/) (2021)
- [Is Pessimism Provably Efficient for Offline RL?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15085/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Static Policies to Adaptive Priors in Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.35880/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Popular offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods rely on explicit conservatism, penalizing out-of-dataset actions or restricting rollout horizons. We question the universality of this principle and revisit a complementary Bayesian perspective for test-time adaptation. By modeling a posterior over world models and training a history-dependent agent to maximize expected return, the Bayesian approach directly addresses epistemic uncertainty without explicit conservatism. We first illustrate in a bandit setting that Bayesianism excels on low-quality datasets where conservatism fails. Scaling to realistic tasks, we find that long-horizon rollouts are essential to control value overestimation once conservatism is removed. We introduce design choices that enable learning from long-horizon rollouts while mitigating compounding model errors, yielding our algorithm, NEUBAY, grounded in the neutral Bayesian principle. On D4RL and NeoRL benchmarks, NEUBAY is competitive with leading conservative algorithms, achieving new state-of-the-art on 7 datasets with rollout horizons of several hundred steps. Finally, we characterize datasets by quality and coverage to identify when NEUBAY is preferable to conservative methods.