# The changing surface of the world's roads

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04092 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.04092/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Masked-attention Mask Transformer for Universal Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.01527/) (2021)
- [Self-supervised Learning in Remote Sensing: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13188/) (2022)
- [Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.06988/) (2020)
- [Transformers in Remote Sensing: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.01206/) (2022)
- [Modeling and Analyzing Urban Networks and Amenities with OSMnx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00736/) (2025)
- [Using convolutional networks and satellite imagery to identify patterns in urban environments at a large scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02965/) (2017)
- [Paved or unpaved? A Deep Learning derived Road Surface Global Dataset from Mapillary Street-View Imagery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19874/) (2024)
- [Rural Access Index: A global study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.00505/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Resilient road infrastructure is a cornerstone of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Yet a primary indicator of network functionality and resilience is critically lacking: a comprehensive global baseline of road surface information. Here, we overcome this gap by applying a deep learning framework to a global mosaic of Planetscope satellite imagery from 2020 and 2024. The result is the first global multi-temporal dataset of road pavedness and width for 9.2 million km of critical arterial roads, achieving 95.5% coverage where nearly half the network was previously unclassified. This dataset reveals a powerful multi-scale geography of human development. At the planetary scale, we show that the rate of change in pavedness is a robust proxy for a country's development trajectory (correlation with HDI = 0.65). At the national scale, we quantify how unpaved roads constitute a fragile backbone for economic connectivity. We further synthesize our data into a global Humanitarian Passability Matrix with direct implications for humanitarian logistics. At the local scale, case studies demonstrate the framework's versatility: in Ghana, road quality disparities expose the spatial outcomes of governance; in Pakistan, the data identifies infrastructure vulnerabilities to inform climate resilience planning. Together, this work delivers both a foundational dataset and a multi-scale analytical framework for monitoring global infrastructure, from the dynamics of national development to the realities of local governance, climate adaptation, and equity. Unlike traditional proxies such as nighttime lights, which reflect economic activity, road surface data directly measures the physical infrastructure that underpins prosperity and resilience - at higher spatial resolution.