# Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flow Matching for Climate Emulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.02268 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.02268/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 44 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Scaling Rectified Flow Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03206/) (2024)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [Density estimation using Real NVP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.08803/) (2016)
- [Imagen Video: High Definition Video Generation with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02303/) (2022)
- [HunyuanVideo: A Systematic Framework For Large Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03603/) (2024)
- [Glow: Generative Flow with Invertible 1x1 Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03039/) (2018)
- [Image Super-Resolution via Iterative Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07636/) (2021)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Cascaded Diffusion Models for High Fidelity Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15282/) (2021)
- [Sigmoid-Weighted Linear Units for Neural Network Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03118/) (2017)
- [Diffusion Forcing: Next-token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01392/) (2024)
- [Movie Gen: A Cast of Media Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13720/) (2024)
- [LTX-Video: Realtime Video Latent Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00103/) (2024)
- [MagicVideo: Efficient Video Generation With Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.11018/) (2022)
- [Pyramidal Flow Matching for Efficient Video Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05954/) (2024)
- [LAVIE: High-Quality Video Generation with Cascaded Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15103/) (2023)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Patch n' Pack: NaViT, a Vision Transformer for any Aspect Ratio and Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06304/) (2023)
- [OT-Flow: Fast and Accurate Continuous Normalizing Flows via Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.00104/) (2020)
- [ST-LLM: Large Language Models Are Effective Temporal Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00308/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Toward Artificial Intelligence Enabled Earth System Coupling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.03289/) (2026)
- [Wavelet Flow Matching for Multi-Scale Physics Emulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16573/) (2026)
- [ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18338/) (2026)
- [CasEm: A Cascade Architecture for Long-Horizon Neural Emulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34246/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons and has yet to demonstrate stable rollouts under nonstationary forcings. Here, we introduce Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF), a new class of flow matching approaches that model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales. Inspired by cascaded video models, SPF partitions the generative trajectory into a spatiotemporal pyramid, progressively increasing spatial resolution to reduce computation and coupling each stage with an associated timescale to enable direct sampling at any temporal level in the pyramid. This design, together with conditioning each stage on prescribed physical forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases or aerosols), enables efficient, parallel climate emulation at multiple timescales. On ClimateBench, SPF outperforms strong flow matching baselines and pre-trained models at yearly and monthly timescales while offering fast sampling, especially at coarser temporal levels. To scale SPF, we curate ClimateSuite, the largest collection of Earth system simulations to date, comprising over 33,000 simulation-years across ten climate models and the first dataset to include simulations of climate interventions. We find that the scaled SPF model demonstrates good generalization to held-out scenarios across climate models. Together, SPF and ClimateSuite provide a foundation for accurate, efficient, probabilistic climate emulation across temporal scales and realistic future scenarios. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf .