# Ada-MoGE: Adaptive Mixture of Gaussian Expert Model for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.02061 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.02061/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 13 of its 17 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01507/) (2017)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [Is Mamba Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11144/) (2024)
- [SOFTS: Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Series-Core Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14197/) (2024)
- [TimePro: Efficient Multivariate Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Variable- and Time-Aware Hyper-state](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20774/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multivariate time series forecasts are widely used, such as industrial, transportation and financial forecasts. However, the dominant frequencies in time series may shift with the evolving spectral distribution of the data. Traditional Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, which employ a fixed number of experts, struggle to adapt to these changes, resulting in frequency coverage imbalance issue. Specifically, too few experts can lead to the overlooking of critical information, while too many can introduce noise. To this end, we propose Ada-MoGE, an adaptive Gaussian Mixture of Experts model. Ada-MoGE integrates spectral intensity and frequency response to adaptively determine the number of experts, ensuring alignment with the input data's frequency distribution. This approach prevents both information loss due to an insufficient number of experts and noise contamination from an excess of experts. Additionally, to prevent noise introduction from direct band truncation, we employ Gaussian band-pass filtering to smoothly decompose the frequency domain features, further optimizing the feature representation. The experimental results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on six public benchmarks with only 0.2 million parameters.