# Forecasting in Offline Reinforcement Learning for Non-stationary Environments

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.01987 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.01987/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Offline RL algorithms, one of 13 directions in Offline RL and imitation learning from data.
- Builds on 58 of its 84 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2025.

## Placed in

- Offline RL and imitation learning from data / [Offline RL algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/offlinerl/offline-rl-algorithms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 58)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02971/) (2015)
- [Addressing Function Approximation Error in Actor-Critic Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09477/) (2018)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning: Tutorial, Review, and Perspectives on Open Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01643/) (2020)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning with Double Q-learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.06461/) (2015)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning with Implicit Q-Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06169/) (2021)
- [Off-Policy Deep Reinforcement Learning without Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.02900/) (2018)
- [Planning with Diffusion for Flexible Behavior Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09991/) (2022)
- [A Minimalist Approach to Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06860/) (2021)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Stabilizing Off-Policy Q-Learning via Bootstrapping Error Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00949/) (2019)
- [Advantage-Weighted Regression: Simple and Scalable Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.00177/) (2019)
- [AWAC: Accelerating Online Reinforcement Learning with Offline Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09359/) (2020)
- [Behavior Regularized Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11361/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Policies as an Expressive Policy Class for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.06193/) (2022)
- [Tackling the Generative Learning Trilemma with Denoising Diffusion GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.07804/) (2021)
- [f-GAN: Training Generative Neural Samplers using Variational Divergence Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.00709/) (2016)
- [InstaFlow: One Step is Enough for High-Quality Diffusion-Based Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06380/) (2023)
- [One Step Diffusion via Shortcut Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12557/) (2024)
- [COMBO: Conservative Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08363/) (2021)
- [Understanding Diffusion Models: A Unified Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.11970/) (2022)
- [IDQL: Implicit Q-Learning as an Actor-Critic Method with Diffusion Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.10573/) (2023)
- [Way Off-Policy Batch Deep Reinforcement Learning of Implicit Human Preferences in Dialog](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00456/) (2019)
- [Towards Continual Reinforcement Learning: A Review and Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.13490/) (2020)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a promising avenue for training policies from pre-collected datasets when gathering additional interaction data is infeasible. However, existing offline RL methods often assume stationarity or only consider synthetic perturbations at test time, assumptions that often fail in real-world scenarios characterized by abrupt, time-varying offsets. These offsets can lead to partial observability, causing agents to misperceive their true state and degrade performance. To overcome this challenge, we introduce Forecasting in Non-stationary Offline RL (FORL), a framework that unifies (i) conditional diffusion-based candidate state generation, trained without presupposing any specific pattern of future non-stationarity, and (ii) zero-shot time-series foundation models. FORL targets environments prone to unexpected, potentially non-Markovian offsets, requiring robust agent performance from the onset of each episode. Empirical evaluations on offline RL benchmarks, augmented with real-world time-series data to simulate realistic non-stationarity, demonstrate that FORL consistently improves performance compared to competitive baselines. By integrating zero-shot forecasting with the agent's experience, we aim to bridge the gap between offline RL and the complexities of real-world, non-stationary environments.