# TrendGNN: Towards Understanding of Epidemics, Beliefs, and Behaviors

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00421 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00421/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [CF-GNNExplainer: Counterfactual Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.03322/) (2021)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs): A gentle Introduction and Overview](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.05911/) (2019)
- [Forecasting Economics and Financial Time Series: ARIMA vs. LSTM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.06386/) (2018)
- [Dynamic Games of Social Distancing during an Epidemic: Analysis of Asymmetric Solutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.12431/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Epidemic outcomes have a complex interplay with human behavior and beliefs. Most of the forecasting literature has focused on the task of predicting epidemic signals using simple mechanistic models or black-box models, such as deep transformers, that ingest all available signals without offering interpretability. However, to better understand the mechanisms and predict the impact of interventions, we need the ability to forecast signals associated with beliefs and behaviors in an interpretable manner. In this work, we propose a graph-based forecasting framework that first constructs a graph of interrelated signals based on trend similarity, and then applies graph neural networks (GNNs) for prediction. This approach enables interpretable analysis by revealing which signals are more predictable and which relationships contribute most to forecasting accuracy. We believe our method provides early steps towards a framework for interpretable modeling in domains with multiple potentially interdependent signals, with implications for building future simulation models that integrate behavior, beliefs, and observations.