# TeleViT1.0: Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformers for Subseasonal to Seasonal Wildfire Pattern Forecasts

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00089 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00089/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Transformers are RNNs: Fast Autoregressive Transformers with Linear Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16236/) (2020)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00646/) (2020)
- [Deep Learning for Global Wildfire Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00534/) (2022)
- [TeleViT: Teleconnection-driven Transformers Improve Subseasonal to Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10940/) (2023)
- [Causal Graph Neural Networks for Wildfire Danger Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08414/) (2024)
- [FireCastNet: Earth-as-a-Graph for Seasonal Fire Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01550/) (2025)
- [Deep Learning Meets Teleconnections: Improving S2S Predictions for European Winter Weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07625/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Trustworthy Data-Driven Wildfire Risk Prediction and Understanding in Western Canada](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01677/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting wildfires weeks to months in advance is difficult, yet crucial for planning fuel treatments and allocating resources. While short-term predictions typically rely on local weather conditions, long-term forecasting requires accounting for the Earth's interconnectedness, including global patterns and teleconnections. We introduce TeleViT, a Teleconnection-aware Vision Transformer that integrates (i) fine-scale local fire drivers, (ii) coarsened global fields, and (iii) teleconnection indices. This multi-scale fusion is achieved through an asymmetric tokenization strategy that produces heterogeneous tokens processed jointly by a transformer encoder, followed by a decoder that preserves spatial structure by mapping local tokens to their corresponding prediction patches. Using the global SeasFire dataset (2001-2021, 8-day resolution), TeleViT improves AUPRC performance over U-Net++, ViT, and climatology across all lead times, including horizons up to four months. At zero lead, TeleViT with indices and global inputs reaches AUPRC 0.630 (ViT 0.617, U-Net 0.620), at 16x8day lead (around 4 months), TeleViT variants using global input maintain 0.601-0.603 (ViT 0.582, U-Net 0.578), while surpassing the climatology (0.572) at all lead times. Regional results show the highest skill in seasonally consistent fire regimes, such as African savannas, and lower skill in boreal and arid regions. Attention and attribution analyses indicate that predictions rely mainly on local tokens, with global fields and indices contributing coarse contextual information. These findings suggest that architectures explicitly encoding large-scale Earth-system context can extend wildfire predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales.