# Where to Measure: Epistemic Uncertainty-Based Sensor Placement with ConvCNPs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.22567 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22567/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Conditional Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01613/) (2018)
- [Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01622/) (2018)
- [Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13556/) (2019)
- [Active Learning for Deep Object Detection via Probabilistic Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.16130/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Learning from Demonstration using Mixture Density Networks with Sampling-Free Variance Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.02249/) (2017)
- [Environmental Sensor Placement with Convolutional Gaussian Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.10381/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate sensor placement is critical for modeling spatio-temporal systems such as environmental and climate processes. Neural Processes (NPs), particularly Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes (ConvCNPs), provide scalable probabilistic models with uncertainty estimates, making them well-suited for data-driven sensor placement. However, existing approaches rely on total predictive uncertainty, which conflates epistemic and aleatoric components, that may lead to suboptimal sensor selection in ambiguous regions. To address this, we propose expected reduction in epistemic uncertainty as a new acquisition function for sensor placement. To enable this, we extend ConvCNPs with a Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) output head for epistemic uncertainty estimation. Preliminary results suggest that epistemic uncertainty driven sensor placement more effectively reduces model error than approaches based on overall uncertainty.