# Simplex-Optimized Hybrid Ensemble for Large Language Model Text Detection Under Generative Distribution Drif

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.22153 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22153/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [PEGASUS: Pre-training with Extracted Gap-sentences for Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.08777/) (2019)
- [DetectGPT: Zero-Shot Machine-Generated Text Detection using Probability Curvature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11305/) (2023)
- [A Watermark for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10226/) (2023)
- [Defending Against Neural Fake News](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12616/) (2019)
- [Release Strategies and the Social Impacts of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09203/) (2019)
- [GLTR: Statistical Detection and Visualization of Generated Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04043/) (2019)
- [Paraphrasing evades detectors of AI-generated text, but retrieval is an effective defense](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13408/) (2023)
- [Can AI-Generated Text be Reliably Detected?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11156/) (2023)
- [On the Possibilities of AI-Generated Text Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.04736/) (2023)
- [Machine Generated Text: A Comprehensive Survey of Threat Models and Detection Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07321/) (2022)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Examples in Image Captioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05418/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) has made it difficult to distinguish human writing from machine-produced text in many real applications. Detectors that were effective for one generation of models tend to degrade when newer models or modified decoding strategies are introduced. In this work, we study this lack of stability and propose a hybrid ensemble that is explicitly designed to cope with changing generator distributions. The ensemble combines three complementary components: a RoBERTa-based classifier fine-tuned for supervised detection, a curvature-inspired score based on perturbing the input and measuring changes in model likelihood, and a compact stylometric model built on hand-crafted linguistic features. The outputs of these components are fused on the probability simplex, and the weights are chosen via validation-based search. We frame this approach in terms of variance reduction and risk under mixtures of generators, and show that the simplex constraint provides a simple way to trade off the strengths and weaknesses of each branch. Experiments on a 30000 document corpus drawn from several LLM families including models unseen during training and paraphrased attack variants show that the proposed method achieves 94.2% accuracy and an AUC of 0.978. The ensemble also lowers false positives on scientific articles compared to strong baselines, which is critical in educational and research settings where wrongly flagging human work is costly