# Distillability of LLM Security Logic: Predicting Attack Success Rate of Outline Filling Attack via Ranking Regression

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.22044 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22044/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Jailbreaking, one of 12 directions in LLM safety and security.
- Builds on 13 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM safety and security / [Jailbreaking](https://mlsanity.com/safety/jailbreaking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15043/) (2023)
- [HarmBench: A Standardized Evaluation Framework for Automated Red Teaming and Robust Refusal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04249/) (2024)
- [Fine-tuning Aligned Language Models Compromises Safety, Even When Users Do Not Intend To!](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03693/) (2023)
- [GPTFUZZER: Red Teaming Large Language Models with Auto-Generated Jailbreak Prompts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.10253/) (2023)
- [Jailbreak and Guard Aligned Language Models with Only Few In-Context Demonstrations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06387/) (2023)
- [DrAttack: Prompt Decomposition and Reconstruction Makes Powerful LLM Jailbreakers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16914/) (2024)
- [Does Refusal Training in LLMs Generalize to the Past Tense?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11969/) (2024)
- [Jailbreaking Large Language Models Against Moderation Guardrails via Cipher Characters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20413/) (2024)
- [RL Is a Hammer and LLMs Are Nails: A Simple Reinforcement Learning Recipe for Strong Prompt Injection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04885/) (2025)
- [AttnGCG: Enhancing Jailbreaking Attacks on LLMs with Attention Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09040/) (2024)
- [HarmMetric Eval: Benchmarking Metrics and Judges for LLM Harmfulness Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24384/) (2025)
- [You Know What I'm Saying: Jailbreak Attack via Implicit Reference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03857/) (2024)
- [GASP: Efficient Black-Box Generation of Adversarial Suffixes for Jailbreaking LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.14133/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In the realm of black-box jailbreak attacks on large language models (LLMs), the feasibility of constructing a narrow safety proxy, a lightweight model designed to predict the attack success rate (ASR) of adversarial prompts, remains underexplored. This work investigates the distillability of an LLM's core security logic. We propose a novel framework that incorporates an improved outline filling attack to achieve dense sampling of the model's security boundaries. Furthermore, we introduce a ranking regression paradigm that replaces standard regression and trains the proxy model to predict which prompt yields a higher ASR. Experimental results show that our proxy model achieves an accuracy of 91.1 percent in predicting the relative ranking of average long response (ALR), and 69.2 percent in predicting ASR. These findings confirm the predictability and distillability of jailbreak behaviors, and demonstrate the potential of leveraging such distillability to optimize black-box attacks.