# Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics-ML Climate Simulation via a 50,000 Kaggle Competition

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.20963 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20963/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 67 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep learning to represent sub-grid processes in climate models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.04731/) (2018)
- [FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12144/) (2025)
- [Squeezeformer: An Efficient Transformer for Automatic Speech Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00888/) (2022)
- [Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Mesh](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06253/) (2023)
- [Samudra: An AI Global Ocean Emulator for Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03795/) (2024)
- [SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12490/) (2025)
- [Neural Emulator Superiority: When Machine Learning for PDEs Surpasses its Training Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23111/) (2025)
- [Multi-fidelity climate model parameterization for better generalization and extrapolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.10231/) (2023)
- [CERA: A Framework for Improved Generalization of Machine Learning Models to Changed Climates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00010/) (2025)
- [Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design with O(100) Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16177/) (2023)
- [Distilling Machine Learning's Added Value: Pareto Fronts in Atmospheric Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.02161/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [No Epoch Like the Present: Robust Climate Emulation Requires Out-of-Distribution Generalisation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.22248/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.