# Frailty-Aware Transformer for Recurrent Survival Modeling of Driver Retention in Ride-Hailing Platforms

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.19893 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.19893/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [DeepSurv: Personalized Treatment Recommender System Using A Cox Proportional Hazards Deep Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.00931/) (2016)
- [Time-to-Event Prediction with Neural Networks and Cox Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00825/) (2019)
- [Deep Recurrent Survival Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02403/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ride-hailing platforms are characterized by high-frequency, behavior-driven environments. Although survival analysis has been applied to recurrent events in other domains, its use in modeling ride-hailing driver behavior remains largely unexplored. This study formulates idle behavior as a recurrent survival process using large-scale platform data and proposes a Transformer-based framework that captures long-term temporal dependencies with causal masking and incorporates driver-specific embeddings to model latent heterogeneity. Results on Toronto ride-hailing data demonstrate that the proposed Frailty-Aware Cox Transformer (FACT) achieves the highest time-dependent C-indices and lowest Brier Scores, outperforming classical and deep learning survival models. This approach enables more accurate risk estimation, supports platform retention strategies, and provides policy-relevant insights.