# Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prediction in Turbofan Engines with Learned Aleatoric Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.19124 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.19124/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Multi-Sensor Prognostics using an Unsupervised Health Index based on LSTM Encoder-Decoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06154/) (2016)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Predictive Maintenance: Deep Learning-Based Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Combat Aircraft Engines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01819/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction coupled with uncertainty quantification remains a critical challenge in aerospace prognostics. This research introduces a novel uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that learns aleatoric uncertainty directly through probabilistic modeling, an approach unexplored in existing CMAPSS-based literature. Our hierarchical architecture integrates multi-scale Inception blocks for temporal pattern extraction, bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks for sequential modeling, and a dual-level attention mechanism operating simultaneously on sensor and temporal dimensions. The innovation lies in the Bayesian output layer that predicts both mean RUL and variance, enabling the model to learn data-inherent uncertainty. Comprehensive preprocessing employs condition-aware clustering, wavelet denoising, and intelligent feature selection. Experimental validation on NASA CMAPSS benchmarks (FD001-FD004) demonstrates competitive overall performance with RMSE values of 16.22, 19.29, 16.84, and 19.98 respectively. Remarkably, our framework achieves breakthrough critical zone performance (RUL <= 30 cycles) with RMSE of 5.14, 6.89, 5.27, and 7.16, representing 25-40 percent improvements over conventional approaches and establishing new benchmarks for safety-critical predictions. The learned uncertainty provides well-calibrated 95 percent confidence intervals with coverage ranging from 93.5 percent to 95.2 percent, enabling risk-aware maintenance scheduling previously unattainable in CMAPSS literature.