# Large-Scale In-Game Outcome Forecasting for Match, Team and Players in Football using an Axial Transformer Neural Network

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.18730 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18730/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [ViLT: Vision-and-Language Transformer Without Convolution or Region Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.03334/) (2021)
- [Image as a Foreign Language: BEiT Pretraining for All Vision and Vision-Language Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.10442/) (2022)
- [Axial Attention in Multidimensional Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.12180/) (2019)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03083/) (2023)
- [Actions Speak Louder Than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07127/) (2018)
- [4M-21: An Any-to-Any Vision Model for Tens of Tasks and Modalities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09406/) (2024)
- [Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16005/) (2023)
- [A framework for the fine-grained evaluation of the instantaneous expected value of soccer possessions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09426/) (2020)
- [A Bayesian Approach to In-Game Win Probability in Soccer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05029/) (2019)
- [A Novel Transformer Network with Shifted Window Cross-Attention for Spatiotemporal Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01252/) (2022)
- [Classification of Passes in Football Matches using Spatiotemporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1407.5093/) (2014)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Football (soccer) is a sport that is characterised by complex game play, where players perform a variety of actions, such as passes, shots, tackles, fouls, in order to score goals, and ultimately win matches. Accurately forecasting the total number of each action that each player will complete during a match is desirable for a variety of applications, including tactical decision-making, sports betting, and for television broadcast commentary and analysis. Such predictions must consider the game state, the ability and skill of the players in both teams, the interactions between the players, and the temporal dynamics of the game as it develops. In this paper, we present a transformer-based neural network that jointly and recurrently predicts the expected totals for thirteen individual actions at multiple time-steps during the match, and where predictions are made for each individual player, each team and at the game-level. The neural network is based on an axial transformer that efficiently captures the temporal dynamics as the game progresses, and the interactions between the players at each time-step. We present a novel axial transformer design that we show is equivalent to a regular sequential transformer, and the design performs well experimentally. We show empirically that the model can make consistent and reliable predictions, and efficiently makes ~75,000 live predictions at low latency for each game.