# BCWildfire: A Long-term Multi-factor Dataset and Deep Learning Benchmark for Boreal Wildfire Risk Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.17597 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17597/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [CrossLinear: Plug-and-Play Cross-Correlation Embedding for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23116/) (2025)
- [Mesogeos: A multi-purpose dataset for data-driven wildfire modeling in the Mediterranean](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05144/) (2023)
- [Location-aware Adaptive Normalization: A Deep Learning Approach For Wildfire Danger Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08208/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25017/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Trustworthy Data-Driven Wildfire Risk Prediction and Understanding in Western Canada](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01677/) (2026)
- [PyroStack: A Multi-Band Spatio-Temporal Sub-Daily Dataset for Wildfires in the United States](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.36315/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Wildfire risk prediction remains a critical yet challenging task due to the complex interactions among fuel conditions, meteorology, topography, and human activity. Despite growing interest in data-driven approaches, publicly available benchmark datasets that support long-term temporal modeling, large-scale spatial coverage, and multimodal drivers remain scarce. To address this gap, we present a 25-year, daily-resolution wildfire dataset covering 240 million hectares across British Columbia and surrounding regions. The dataset includes 38 covariates, encompassing active fire detections, weather variables, fuel conditions, terrain features, and anthropogenic factors. Using this benchmark, we evaluate a diverse set of time-series forecasting models, including CNN-based, linear-based, Transformer-based, and Mamba-based architectures. We also investigate effectiveness of position embedding and the relative importance of different fire-driving factors. The dataset and the corresponding code can be found at https://github.com/SynUW/mmFire