# Energy Scaling Laws for Diffusion Models: Quantifying Compute in Image Generation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.17031 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17031/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion foundations and sampling, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 37 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion foundations and sampling](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-foundations-and-sampling/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1405.0312/) (2014)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12092/) (2021)
- [Scaling Rectified Flow Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03206/) (2024)
- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [DPM-Solver: A Fast ODE Solver for Diffusion Probabilistic Model Sampling in Around 10 Steps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00927/) (2022)
- [Energy and Policy Considerations for Deep Learning in NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02243/) (2019)
- [Mixed Precision Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.03740/) (2017)
- [One-step Diffusion with Distribution Matching Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18828/) (2023)
- [On Distillation of Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03142/) (2022)
- [Estimating the Carbon Footprint of BLOOM, a 176B Parameter Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02001/) (2022)
- [Towards the Systematic Reporting of the Energy and Carbon Footprints of Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05651/) (2020)
- [Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16863/) (2023)
- [Carbontracker: Tracking and Predicting the Carbon Footprint of Training Deep Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03051/) (2020)
- [Parallel Sampling of Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16317/) (2023)
- [Data Movement Is All You Need: A Case Study on Optimizing Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00072/) (2020)
- [The Efficiency Misnomer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.12894/) (2021)
- [NVIDIA Tensor Core Programmability, Performance & Precision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.04014/) (2018)
- [How Hungry is AI? Benchmarking Energy, Water, and Carbon Footprint of LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09598/) (2025)
- [Dissecting the NVIDIA Volta GPU Architecture via Microbenchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06826/) (2018)
- [Hype, Sustainability, and the Price of the Bigger-is-Better Paradigm in AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.14160/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The rapidly growing computational demands of diffusion models for image generation have raised significant concerns about energy consumption and environmental impact. While existing approaches to energy optimization focus on architectural improvements or hardware acceleration, there is a lack of principled methods to predict energy consumption across different model configurations and hardware setups. We propose an adaptation of Kaplan scaling laws to predict GPU energy consumption for diffusion models based on computational complexity (FLOPs). Our approach decomposes diffusion model inference into text encoding, iterative denoising, and decoding components, with the hypothesis that denoising operations dominate energy consumption due to their repeated execution across multiple inference steps. We conduct comprehensive experiments across four state-of-the-art diffusion models (Stable Diffusion 2, Stable Diffusion 3.5, Flux, and Qwen) on three GPU architectures (NVIDIA A100, A4000, A6000), spanning various inference configurations including resolution (2562--10242), precision (fp16/fp32), step counts (10--50), and classifier-free guidance settings. Our energy scaling law achieves high predictive accuracy within individual architectures (R2 > 0.9) and exhibits strong cross-architecture generalization, maintaining high rank correlations across models and enabling reliable energy estimation for unseen model--hardware combinations. These results validate the compute-bound nature of diffusion inference and establish energy consumption estimation as a necessary foundation for sustainable AI deployment planning and subsequent carbon footprint assessment.