# Monte Carlo Expected Threat (MOCET) Scoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16823 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.16823/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Orca: Progressive Learning from Complex Explanation Traces of GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02707/) (2023)
- [The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07228/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Evaluating and measuring AI Safety Level (ASL) threats are crucial for guiding stakeholders to implement safeguards that keep risks within acceptable limits. ASL-3+ models present a unique risk in their ability to uplift novice non-state actors, especially in the realm of biosecurity. Existing evaluation metrics, such as LAB-Bench, BioLP-bench, and WMDP, can reliably assess model uplift and domain knowledge. However, metrics that better contextualize "real-world risks" are needed to inform the safety case for LLMs, along with scalable, open-ended metrics to keep pace with their rapid advancements. To address both gaps, we introduce MOCET, an interpretable and doubly-scalable metric (automatable and open-ended) that can quantify real-world risks.