# Temporal Predictors of Outcome in Reasoning Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14773 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.14773/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 8 of its 10 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10625/) (2022)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.10625/) (2025)
- [Early Stopping Chain-of-thoughts in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14004/) (2025)
- [Inside-Out: Hidden Factual Knowledge in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15299/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Triggering Chain-of-Thought via Latent Feature Interventions in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.08058/) (2026)
- [Breaking the Solver Bottleneck: Training Task Generators at the Learnable Frontier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18284/) (2026)
- [Measuring and Mitigating Post-hoc Rationalization in Reverse Chain-of-Thought Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14469/) (2026)
- [Latent Programming Horizons in Coding Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.05188/) (2026)
- [It's the Problem, Not the Path: Budget and Difficulty Confounds in LLM Reasoning Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.03436/) (2026)
- [Temporal Preference Concepts and their Functions in a Large Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05194/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The chain-of-thought (CoT) paradigm uses the elicitation of step-by-step rationales as a proxy for reasoning, gradually refining the model's latent representation of a solution. However, it remains unclear just how early a Large Language Model (LLM) internally commits to an eventual outcome. We probe this by training linear classifiers on hidden states after the first t reasoning tokens, showing that eventual correctness is highly predictable after only a few tokens, even when longer outputs are needed to reach a definite answer. We show that, for harder questions, a drop in predictive accuracy highlights a selection artifact: hard items are disproportionately represented in long CoTs. Overall, our results imply that for reasoning models, internal self-assessment of success tends to emerge after only a few tokens, with implications for interpretability and for inference-time control.