# ReCast: Reliability-aware Codebook Assisted Lightweight Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.11991 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11991/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Neural Discrete Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00937/) (2017)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Visual Autoregressive Modeling: Scalable Image Generation via Next-Scale Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02905/) (2024)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [Your Classifier is Secretly an Energy Based Model and You Should Treat it Like One](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.03263/) (2019)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Variance-based regularization with convex objectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02581/) (2016)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [An Online Method for A Class of Distributionally Robust Optimization with Non-Convex Objectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10138/) (2020)
- [Towards Lightweight Time Series Forecasting: a Patch-wise Transformer with Weak Data Enriching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.10448/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Structured Latent Space Modeling over Multi-Scale Temporal Patches for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.19404/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications in various domains. Conventional methods often rely on global decomposition into trend, seasonal, and residual components, which become ineffective for real-world series dominated by local, complex, and highly dynamic patterns. Moreover, the high model complexity of such approaches limits their applicability in real-time or resource-constrained environments. In this work, we propose a novel REliability-aware Codebook-ASsisted Time series forecasting framework (ReCast) that enables lightweight and robust prediction by exploiting recurring local shapes. ReCast encodes local patterns into discrete embeddings through patch-wise quantization using a learnable codebook, thereby compactly capturing stable regular structures. To compensate for residual variations not preserved by quantization, ReCast employs a dual-path architecture comprising a quantization path for efficient modeling of regular structures and a residual path for reconstructing irregular fluctuations. A central contribution of ReCast is a reliability-aware codebook update strategy, which incrementally refines the codebook via weighted corrections. These correction weights are derived by fusing multiple reliability factors from complementary perspectives by a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) scheme, ensuring adaptability to non-stationarity and robustness to distribution shifts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReCast outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability to distribution shifts.