# Bayesian--AI Fusion for Epidemiological Decision Making: Calibrated Risk, Honest Uncertainty, and Hyperparameter Intelligence

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.11983 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11983/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.02811/) (2018)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Scalable and accurate deep learning for electronic health records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07860/) (2018)
- [AutoPrognosis: Automated Clinical Prognostic Modeling via Bayesian Optimization with Structured Kernel Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07207/) (2018)
- [AutoPrognosis 2.0: Democratizing Diagnostic and Prognostic Modeling in Healthcare with Automated Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.12090/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to integrate with contemporary AI workflows. This paper proposes a unified Bayesian and AI framework that combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization. We use Bayesian logistic regression to obtain calibrated individual-level disease risk and credible intervals on the Pima Indians Diabetes dataset. In parallel, we use Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization to tune penalized Cox survival models on the GBSG2 breast cancer cohort. This yields a two-layer system: a Bayesian predictive layer that represents risk as a posterior distribution, and a Bayesian optimization layer that treats model selection as inference over a black-box objective. Simulation studies in low- and high-dimensional regimes show that the Bayesian layer provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, while Bayesian shrinkage improves AUC, Brier score, and log-loss. Bayesian optimization consistently pushes survival models toward near-oracle concordance. Overall, Bayesian reasoning enhances both what we infer and how we search, enabling calibrated risk and principled hyperparameter intelligence for epidemiological decision making.