# KarmaTS: A Universal Simulation Platform for Multivariate Time Series with Functional Causal Dynamics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.11357 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11357/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01422/) (2018)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07007/) (2017)
- [DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00498/) (2020)
- [Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.03685/) (2020)
- [High-recall causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01884/) (2020)
- [Causal Discovery from Temporal Data: An Overview and New Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10112/) (2023)
- [Neural graphical modelling in continuous-time: consistency guarantees and algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.02522/) (2021)
- [CUTS+: High-dimensional Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05890/) (2023)
- [CausalTime: Realistically Generated Time-series for Benchmarking of Causal Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01753/) (2023)
- [A Versatile Causal Discovery Framework to Allow Causally-Related Hidden Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11001/) (2023)
- [Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders Based on Higher-Order Cumulants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19582/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce KarmaTS, an interactive framework for constructing lag-indexed, executable spatiotemporal causal graphical models for multivariate time series (MTS) simulation. Motivated by the challenge of access-restricted physiological data, KarmaTS generates synthetic MTS with known causal dynamics and augments real-world datasets with expert knowledge. The system constructs a discrete-time structural causal process (DSCP) by combining expert knowledge and algorithmic proposals in a mixed-initiative, human-in-the-loop workflow. The resulting DSCP supports simulation and causal interventions, including those under user-specified distribution shifts. KarmaTS handles mixed variable types, contemporaneous and lagged edges, and modular edge functionals ranging from parameterizable templates to neural network models. Together, these features enable flexible validation and benchmarking of causal discovery algorithms through expert-informed simulation.