# Sequential Bayesian Evaluation of Large Language Model Behavior

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.10661 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.10661/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 56 of its 87 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15043/) (2023)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [Learning to summarize from human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01325/) (2020)
- [Code Llama: Open Foundation Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12950/) (2023)
- [Jailbroken: How Does LLM Safety Training Fail?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02483/) (2023)
- [Gorilla: Large Language Model Connected with Massive APIs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15334/) (2023)
- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [RealToxicityPrompts: Evaluating Neural Toxic Degeneration in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11462/) (2020)
- [Llama Guard: LLM-based Input-Output Safeguard for Human-AI Conversations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06674/) (2023)
- [ALFWorld: Aligning Text and Embodied Environments for Interactive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03768/) (2020)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12983/) (2023)
- [Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03286/) (2022)
- [ALFRED: A Benchmark for Interpreting Grounded Instructions for Everyday Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01734/) (2019)
- [CRITIC: Large Language Models Can Self-Correct with Tool-Interactive Critiquing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11738/) (2023)
- [AlpacaFarm: A Simulation Framework for Methods that Learn from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14387/) (2023)
- [Can Large Language Models Be an Alternative to Human Evaluations?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01937/) (2023)
- [Red Teaming Language Models to Reduce Harms: Methods, Scaling Behaviors, and Lessons Learned](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07858/) (2022)
- [Prometheus: Inducing Fine-grained Evaluation Capability in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08491/) (2023)
- [JailbreakBench: An Open Robustness Benchmark for Jailbreaking Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.01318/) (2024)
- [DecodingTrust: A Comprehensive Assessment of Trustworthiness in GPT Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11698/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Static Personal Values to Contextualized Personalization: Bayesian Personalized Value Alignment for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.28942/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

It is increasingly important to evaluate the characteristics of systems based on large language models (LLMs). Evaluations in this context often rely on a curated benchmark set of input prompts provided to the LLM, where the output for each prompt may be assigned a binary or ordinal score and the aggregation of scores across prompts is then used as a summary evaluation. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for quantifying the uncertainty that arises in such evaluation metrics as a result of the stochasticity of the LLM-based systems; the same prompt may exhibit different outcomes on repeated runs. Our framework leads naturally to a sequential evaluation, in which we leverage the Bayesian model to preferentially select which prompts in the benchmark to use next, enabling more cost-effective LLM evaluations. We demonstrate this approach through four case studies: pairwise LLM preferences in interactive dialogue (MT-Bench), refusal rates on adversarial inputs (JailbreakBench), embodied agentic reasoning (ALFWorld), and agentic web-search Q&A (GAIA). Our results illustrate how a Bayesian approach can provide insightful uncertainty quantification about the behavior of blackbox LLM-based systems in a manner that is not accessible via deterministic or single-run evaluations.