# Seer Self-Consistency: Advance Budget Estimation for Adaptive Test-Time Scaling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09345 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.09345/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 25 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Qwen2.5-Math Technical Report: Toward Mathematical Expert Model via Self-Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12122/) (2024)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [From System 1 to System 2: A Survey of Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17419/) (2025)
- [TokenSkip: Controllable Chain-of-Thought Compression in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12067/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [Skywork-Reward-V2: Scaling Preference Data Curation via Human-AI Synergy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.01352/) (2025)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Efficient Reasoning Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10903/) (2025)
- [Make Every Penny Count: Difficulty-Adaptive Self-Consistency for Cost-Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13457/) (2024)
- [Sampling-Efficient Test-Time Scaling: Self-Estimating the Best-of-N Sampling in Early Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01422/) (2025)
- [Efficient Inference for Large Reasoning Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23077/) (2025)
- [Are More LLM Calls All You Need? Towards Scaling Laws of Compound Inference Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02419/) (2024)
- [Bridging Internal Probability and Self-Consistency for Effective and Efficient LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00511/) (2025)
- [Slim-SC: Thought Pruning for Efficient Scaling with Self-Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13990/) (2025)
- [Adaptive Termination for Multi-round Parallel Reasoning: An Universal Semantic Entropy-Guided Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06829/) (2025)
- [Faster and Better LLMs via Latency-Aware Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19634/) (2025)
- [Latency and Token-Aware Test-Time Compute](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09864/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Hidden States as Early Signals: Step-level Trace Evaluation and Pruning for Efficient Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.09093/) (2026)
- [HyPER: Bridging Exploration and Exploitation for Scalable LLM Reasoning with Hypothesis Path Expansion and Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06527/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Budget Allocation for Adaptive Test-Time Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26849/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-time scaling improves the inference performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) but also incurs substantial computational costs. Although recent studies have reduced token consumption through dynamic self-consistency, they remain constrained by the high latency of sequential requests. In this paper, we propose SeerSC, a dynamic self-consistency framework that simultaneously improves token efficiency and latency by integrating System 1 and System 2 reasoning. Specifically, we utilize the rapid System 1 to compute the answer entropy for given queries. This score is then used to evaluate the potential of samples for scaling, enabling dynamic self-consistency under System 2. Benefiting from the advance and accurate estimation provided by System 1, the proposed method can reduce token usage while simultaneously achieving a significant decrease in latency through parallel generation. It outperforms existing methods, achieving up to a 47% reduction in token consumption and a 43% reduction in inference latency without significant performance loss.